What Is Bet365 Value Betting – Are Bet365 Value Bets Profitable In our forum and on X people are often asked for advice: who will win competition X? However, being successful in sports betting at Bet365 is not so much about predicting the winner, but about finding value. A good bet does not always have to be good. That may sound strange, but it is the way to outsmart Bet365.
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Last updated: 16 April 2024
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What Is Value When You Talk About Betting?
To get straight to the point: “Bet365 Value Betting” is not about getting a bet right. We can all place a bet with our eyes closed and get it right, but that doesn't make it a good bet. “Value betting” means placing bets with odds that are too high based on our probability calculation.
Heads or Tails Is a Good Example: Always 2 Chances
The best example is tossing a coin. If we play heads or tails, there are two possible outcomes: heads or tails.
We have a 50% chance of heads and a 50% chance of tails. A fair odds for each of these outcomes is (100 / 50): 2.00.
Any odds higher than 2.00 do not reflect the 50% chance of heads/tails and will always be profitable in the long run.
In the long term, we will always see a 50/50 split between heads and tails. If we were to bet a thousand times on heads, we would expect five hundred heads.
If we were to bet one euro every time at odds of 2.10, we would expect €1050 back after five hundred good bets (500 * 2.10 = 1050). In other words: €50 profit.
Football Is Not a Rocket Science
Unlike coin tossing, poker or roulette, it is impossible to apply a mathematical formula to any sporting event. How do we calculate Arsenal's chances of winning a national title? And if we think we know what Arsenal's chances are, how do we know that our estimate is better than that of Bet365? Unfortunately, we cannot represent this as black and white as with a simple heads-or-tails game.
The CCCW Experience: Knowing Clubs, Competitions, Culture & Betting Market
The answers to those questions may never come, and sometimes they come with time. In any case, it's all about experience, knowing the sport, the clubs and the betting market inside and out. Some knowledge of how Bet365 determine their odds is also very useful.
The good news is that Bet365 also makes mistakes, no matter how sharp their odds sometimes are. In some cases, they even make very serious mistakes, and then it is important to take advantage of them.
We rarely encounter major mistakes, but smaller mistakes in the form of incorrectly determined odds occur regularly.
Correct Information Is What It's All About
So, having correct information is very important. Some of us sift through all the statistics. What are the results on your field and how does the away team normally perform away from home? Others check all the news and keep an eye on the club websites to find out as much as possible about the upcoming match. What about motivation, injuries and suspensions? What will the weather be like? And of course there is always the option to outsource the thinking and use a paid tipster.
The search for information is an individual process. There is no right or wrong way. The more we find out the better. Ultimately, we are all looking for value, and not looking for the winner of the competition. The question ‘Who will win?' does not represent whether there is value in a bet. If we bet based on which team we think will win, we would always bet on the favourite, and that is exactly what Bet365 wants.
Convert Odds into Odds
The crucial question we must continually ask ourselves is whether the Bet365 Value Betting odds match our probability calculation. If the Bet365 price is higher than our probability calculation, then we have found the value. Converting an odd to a percentage can be done with the following formula: 100 / odd.
Once we've found value, we don't worry about placing a bet on the underdog. The most important thing is that there is value in the bet. We can easily think that the favorite will win and at the same time bet on the underdog. If our probability calculation is correct, we will always make a profit in the long (!) term with bets whose odds do not represent the actual chance.
An example: Arsenal – Tottenham Hotspur
Arsenal plays against Tottenham Hotspur at home. We are looking for value and estimate the chance of a home win at 70%. In contrast, we give a Tottenham Hotspur victory only a 15% chance of success. We look at the odds and see that the odds for Tottenham Hotspur to win are 12.00. That is high, so we will see what percentage is behind that.
- 100 / 12.00 = 8.33
The odd represents a probability of approximately 8.3%. However, we give Tottenham Hotspur a 15% chance, which is a difference of 6.7%. We have found value. Suppose this match were played a hundred times and we bet one euro each time. We would expect to predict the match correctly 15% of the time at odds of 12.00. That means we would make a correct prediction fifteen times. After those hundred matches, we will then be paid the following amount:
- 15 * 12.00 = €180
Out of a hundred bets, only fifteen are correct, but we still make €80 profit. If Bet365 was correct with its 8.3%, we would have approximately broken even (we have to round this down, because a 0.3 match cannot be played).
- 8 * 12 = €96
It is not possible to have a match played a hundred times. The great thing, however, is that you don't have to. Every time we find such a difference of, for example, 8%, we can lump all those matches with value together and we will still end up with a similar profit. Conclusion: see odds as chances when finding value for your bet
The crux therefore lies in approaching the odds differently. We must understand odds as the outcome of probability calculations by Bet365 Value Betting. If we find value in any bet, we close it. It requires a completely different way of thinking because according to our estimation, the chance of losing our bet is very high (in the case of the example as much as 85%). But that doesn't matter, because, in the long term, we can make up for that with wins in other competitions. If we get this bet wrong, of course.
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